Continuous delivery estimate¶
This page is a generated, append-only-ledger-backed forecast. Re-run vibey-gh forecast after changes to refresh it.
- Recorded at:
2026-10-30T23:47:12.253134Z - Source fingerprint:
1669750d6f8119c6d8b1174779bc48590096ae37ee240ac5401eb4dd48835ab9
Current estimate¶
- 685 work unit(s) remain; 779 completed
- time: 41.33–52.69 active day(s) after φ=1
- billing actual: elapsed_seconds=unknown, dollars=unknown, turn_completed_events=unknown, budget_turns=unknown, ledger_events=unknown, phase_transition_events=unknown, capacity_rejections=unknown, handoffs=unknown, tool_invocations=unknown, file_edits=unknown, artifacts_produced=unknown
- billing planned: elapsed_seconds=3570793.3247753535–4552615.384615385, dollars=unknown, turn_completed_events=unknown, budget_turns=unknown, ledger_events=unknown, phase_transition_events=unknown, capacity_rejections=unknown, handoffs=unknown, tool_invocations=unknown, file_edits=unknown, artifacts_produced=unknown
- track record: time={'graded': 0, 'ungraded': 54, 'mean_error': None, 'mean_abs_error': None}; dollars={'graded': 0, 'ungraded': 54, 'mean_error': None, 'mean_abs_error': None}
- billing track records: elapsed_seconds=0 graded/54 ungraded, dollars=0 graded/54 ungraded, turn_completed_events=0 graded/54 ungraded, budget_turns=0 graded/54 ungraded, ledger_events=0 graded/54 ungraded, phase_transition_events=0 graded/54 ungraded, capacity_rejections=0 graded/54 ungraded, handoffs=0 graded/54 ungraded, tool_invocations=0 graded/54 ungraded, file_edits=0 graded/54 ungraded, artifacts_produced=0 graded/54 ungraded
- materials measured: 0/18
- first repair: unknown — no measured material shortfall
- billing unknowns: dollars, turn_completed_events, budget_turns, ledger_events, phase_transition_events, capacity_rejections, handoffs, tool_invocations, file_edits, artifacts_produced
- source problem: billing ledger unavailable at .vibey/billing-ledger.jsonl: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '.vibey/billing-ledger.jsonl'
Full machine-readable record¶
{
"assumptions": [
"repository=the-vibey-project/vibey",
"source_revision=f754757367720fe3a14b3be92025a63df6a88863",
"billing_ledger=.vibey/billing-ledger.jsonl",
"remaining work is open non-PR issues plus open PRs, weighted by size labels",
"completed work is merged PRs, weighted by the same size labels",
"throughput band is the observed mean/median merged work-unit rate per active merge day",
"phi_i uses ((1-floor) / max(value-floor, epsilon))^exponent for measured coordinates; floor=0.1, epsilon=0.01, exponent=1",
"unknown material coordinates use phi=1",
"planned billing dimensions scale observed cumulative usage by remaining/completed work"
],
"billing": {
"actual": {
"artifacts_produced": null,
"budget_turns": null,
"capacity_rejections": null,
"dollars": null,
"elapsed_seconds": null,
"file_edits": null,
"handoffs": null,
"ledger_events": null,
"phase_transition_events": null,
"tool_invocations": null,
"turn_completed_events": null
},
"completion_high": {
"artifacts_produced": null,
"budget_turns": null,
"capacity_rejections": null,
"dollars": null,
"elapsed_seconds": null,
"file_edits": null,
"handoffs": null,
"ledger_events": null,
"phase_transition_events": null,
"tool_invocations": null,
"turn_completed_events": null
},
"completion_low": {
"artifacts_produced": null,
"budget_turns": null,
"capacity_rejections": null,
"dollars": null,
"elapsed_seconds": null,
"file_edits": null,
"handoffs": null,
"ledger_events": null,
"phase_transition_events": null,
"tool_invocations": null,
"turn_completed_events": null
},
"planned_high": {
"artifacts_produced": null,
"budget_turns": null,
"capacity_rejections": null,
"dollars": null,
"elapsed_seconds": 4552615.384615385,
"file_edits": null,
"handoffs": null,
"ledger_events": null,
"phase_transition_events": null,
"tool_invocations": null,
"turn_completed_events": null
},
"planned_low": {
"artifacts_produced": null,
"budget_turns": null,
"capacity_rejections": null,
"dollars": null,
"elapsed_seconds": 3570793.3247753535,
"file_edits": null,
"handoffs": null,
"ledger_events": null,
"phase_transition_events": null,
"tool_invocations": null,
"turn_completed_events": null
},
"unknowns": [
"dollars",
"turn_completed_events",
"budget_turns",
"ledger_events",
"phase_transition_events",
"capacity_rejections",
"handoffs",
"tool_invocations",
"file_edits",
"artifacts_produced"
]
},
"history": {
"commits": {
"active_days": 49,
"mean_per_active_day": 33.673469387755105,
"median_per_active_day": 24.0,
"total": 1650
},
"issues": {
"open": 664,
"open_units": 664.0,
"total": 926
},
"pull_requests": {
"merged": 779,
"open": 21,
"open_units": 21.0
},
"throughput": {
"active_merge_days": 47,
"mean_units_per_merge_day": 16.574468085106382,
"median_units_per_merge_day": 13.0
},
"work_units": {
"completed": 779.0,
"remaining": 685.0
}
},
"materials": [
{
"coordinate": "network.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from reachability of every endpoint the stage needs",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "network.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from variance of reachability and latency over time",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "network.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from whether the network delivers what it claims (loss, corruption)",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "hardware.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from the fit calculus: whether this machine's memory and paging can host the local model",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "hardware.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from drift in free memory, paging pressure and thermals over time",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "hardware.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from whether the machine computes correctly (faults, wear)",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "software.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from the fit calculus: whether the local runner holds the model; tool versions against pins",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "software.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from version and configuration drift",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "software.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from whether the software behaves as specified",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agent.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from a model or a human present to act, and their load",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agent.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from turnover, fatigue and load over time",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agent.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from historical success rate when acting",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "information.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from required inputs at hand: specification, docs, credentials",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "information.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from staleness and drift of those inputs",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "information.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from whether the inputs are true when consulted",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agency.availability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from permissions actually held: merge rights, token scopes, ruleset bypass, and paid credit \u2014 permission to act by spending is agency",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agency.stability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from revocation risk of those permissions",
"value": null
},
{
"coordinate": "agency.reliability",
"distance": null,
"phi": 1.0,
"source": "unmeasured \u2014 would come from whether each permission honours its grant when exercised",
"value": null
}
],
"problems": [
"billing ledger unavailable at .vibey/billing-ledger.jsonl: [Errno 2] No such file or directory: '.vibey/billing-ledger.jsonl'"
],
"recorded_at": "2026-10-30T23:47:12.253134Z",
"schema": "vibey-delivery-forecast/v1",
"source_fingerprint": "1669750d6f8119c6d8b1174779bc48590096ae37ee240ac5401eb4dd48835ab9",
"time": {
"days_high": 52.69230769,
"days_low": 41.32862644,
"first_repair": [],
"phi_product": 1.0
},
"track_record": {
"dimensions": {
"artifacts_produced": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"budget_turns": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"capacity_rejections": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"dollars": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"elapsed_seconds": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"file_edits": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"handoffs": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"ledger_events": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"phase_transition_events": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"tool_invocations": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"turn_completed_events": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
}
},
"dollars": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
},
"time": {
"graded": 0,
"mean_abs_error": null,
"mean_error": null,
"ungraded": 54
}
}
}